Will it, or won't it? The
entire world is wondering whether the H5N1 virus will
become transmissible between humans, igniting the next
flu pandemic. While public health officials are
tracking the disease's spread around the globe,
pharmaceutical companies with flu-fighting products
are accelerating development without knowing exactly
what the virus will look like when they finally go
against it. This issue's "Bench Notes" looks
at potentially breakthrough approaches two companies
are taking to tackle this problem -- a vaccine based
on a novel culture technique and an immunological
manipulation to boost vaccine response.
| Currently, skepticism reigns: Most experts think that just like SARS fizzled out three years ago, H5N1 will too, or at least it will never penetrate the major markets. Supporting that view, Anthony Fauci recently told the Associated Press (AP) that the disease was unlikely to spread in the United States and Europe the way it has in poorer countries.
"The surveillance is going to be so intense that it is very unlikely that there is going to be the type of situation we see everywhere from Nigeria to
Indonesia," he reportedly told AP. Fauci is head of the U.S. National Institutes of Health's infectious disease-fighting
division. |
|
Fauci also said it would be remiss not to prepare for an epidemic, and at least the wealthiest governments are preparing vigorously. Roche's influenza treatment,
Tamiflu, saw a 370 percent increase in 2005 sales, which reached $1.3 billion last year. Almost half those sales were related to pandemic stockpiling. Pandemic-related sales of the drug are expected to reach about $1 billion in
2006.
The interest in influenza vaccines has also skyrocketed. Since the flu virus mutates rapidly anyway, vaccine companies are already developing and marketing new vaccines for the disease every year. Now, there are added incentives.
Sanofi-Pasteur, for example, reports it has netted at least five influenza pandemic-related contracts with the U.S. government: One signed in September 2005 was worth $100
million.
Bird flu is clearly not a great bet for any company that's not already in the business; there is too much uncertainty. But there is much work left to be done. For one thing, current influenza drugs may not work against H5N1, and with current production technology, it takes several months to get a useful vaccine against any influenza outbreak. Also troubling is that in the most recent tests, a candidate H5N1 vaccine had to be given at very high doses to get any response. Those are all reasons that developments such as those in the two articles that follow will be closely watched.
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